Tier 5: Unsolved Mysteries
18. Alexander Mattison – Minnesota Vikings
19. Kenneth Walker III – Seattle Seahawks
20. Cam Akers – Los Angeles Rams
Mattison has been great in his limited role behind Dalvin Cook. When called upon in his career, in games in which Mattison has played over 50% of the snaps, he has averaged 93 rushing yards, 4.1 receptions, 43 receiving yards, and almost a touchdown per game. We can’t just say “Mattison did this previously, so this is what will happen”, but for fun, if we plug those into a 15-game season (15 is conservative due to injury games), his stat line would be 1395 rushing yards, 61 catches for 645 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns.
Those numbers would put him as a top-tier RB in most years. That’s the ceiling and hope for Mattison. Typically, we want to see backups have higher than normal YPC (Yards Per Carry) because they are carrying the ball less than the starter. However, Mattison’s yards have been declining year over year.
If you look at someone like Tony Pollard who has had limited role work behind Zeke, his YPC does the opposite and is consistent. Mattinson’s ADP (Average Draft Position) is all over the place at the moment because it’s still settling from the Dalvin Cook news, but at the right price, he can pay dividends.
Akers
Cam Akers is seeming to get more and more hype during the off-season. Not all hype is created equal, sometimes it’s smoke, sometimes it’s fire. Coaches are going to talk up a player plenty more than they will talk them down. What I do buy is 3 consecutive 100+ yard rushing games and 3 touchdowns in his final 3 games. Not only was that nice, but it showed Akers is healthy and removed from his Achilles injury. Last year’s Rams were without Kupp and Stafford, the two cogs that make the offense move, for a good portion of the season. All 3 of them look healthy for the 2023 season.
I mentioned 5th-round rookie Chase Brown and 3rd-round rookie Tank Bigsby being added to their team’s RB depth chart didn’t really concern me… well Zach Charbonnet does.
Scary Charbonnet
The Seahawks added Charbonnet in the 2nd round. Meanwhile, they hit on an explosive rookie last year in Walker. What Walker does lacks in efficiency and pass-catching prowess, he is a threat to take it to the house from anywhere on the field. Charbonnet is the size of a workhouse RB and has the pass-catching chops to do so too.
Walker’s fantasy ceiling is capped and this hurts to see from a fantasy perspective, but I can see how it makes sense from an NFL perspective. It could be a true 50/50 split with these two, but I see Walker having the veteran advantage and talent to edge Charbonnet out for more of a 60/40.
Tier 6: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
21. Rachaad White – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22. James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
23. Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions
The Good: Jahmyr Gibbs. I really loved what I saw from Gibbs as a prospect and then he goes so much higher in the draft than everyone else thought when the Lions took him at 12th overall. My concern is his size and touchdown upside in the Lions’ offense. I believe Montgomery takes over the role that Jamaal Williams was in last year, giving him the bulk of the touchdowns. However, Gibbs is a special player. A threat to take it to the house anywhere and one of the best-receiving backs in the NFL draft.
Gibbs doesn’t project to be a 300-touch RB, but with his skill set, he should have no problem being efficient with his 200 or so touches.
The Bad: To give you an idea of how bad, the Arizona Cardinals are the favorites to have the 1st overall pick in 2024. James Conner is a starter who has pass-catching chops but is on a bad offense with low TD upside. Conner is a floor play.
The Ugly: Rachaad White. He seems to be taking over the backfield in Tampa Bay with the departure of Fournette. The offense seems to be middling to poor, but he’s got some tools that should help him stay fantasy relevant.
Tier 7: We’ve seen upside
24. David Montgomery – Detroit Lions
25. Isiah Pacheco – Kansas City Chiefs
26. Dameon Pierce – Houston Texans
When I say “We’ve seen upside” I mean that these players and/or their roles have proven fantasy relevant in the past. Not saying any of them are league winners, but there is a path in which any of them could end up significantly higher than they are being valued at right now. When I was discussing Gibbs, I noted my beliefs on Montgomery taking over the Jamaal Williams role from last year which proved very beneficial with a ton of TDs. Not projecting Monty for all of those TDs, but he’s played well in the past on the Bears and now he’ll be playing behind the best offensive line he’s ever played with on a team that seems to be explosive.
Sophomore Campaigns
Pacheco won the “my team didn’t draft or bring in an RB during the offseason” lottery. Last year’s 7th-round pick surprisingly didn’t get anyone added which is great news. He is on one of the best offenses in the NFL which means drives will be sustained and his chance for a double-digit touchdown season is in the cards. I’ve heard Pacheco’s running style called “He looks like Super Mario with star power” before, but he didn’t bring much in his rookie season to the passing game. Also, the Chiefs really pass to the RB often.
Pierce was also a rookie last year. For being drafted in the 4th round and not really getting much tape because of his usage at the University of Florida, he did exceptionally well. The depth chart in 2023 is less barren than in 2022 with the addition of Devin Singletary, who was useful in Buffalo. Not the best offense and is probably a RBBC (Running back by committee) backfield.
Tier 8: There is a path
27. Antonio Gibson – Washington Commanders
28. Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
29. D’Andre Swift – Philadelphia Eagles
It seems every year we get Coach Ron Rivera comparing Antonio Gibson to Christian McCaffrey. While we all know he’s not, Gibson is a very good football player. He’s a weapon with the ball in his hand. In both 2020 and 2021, he was a top-12 RB. In 2022, they drafted and used Brian Robinson a ton, tanking Gibson’s value. If the pathway was clear for Gibson, he’d be ranked higher and we could see a league winner at his ADP, but sadly there isn’t.
Kamara, oh Kamara. He’s likely to be suspended for his off-the-field issues, no one knows how long his suspension will be, but an educated guess would be 6-8 games. That equates to missing about half the season. We know he’s great when he’s active, but he could also be suspended for the full season. Let’s hope the news breaks before your drafts. Also, stash rookie RB Kendre Miller at the end of your drafts in case he plays a bigger role than expected.
People argue that Swift is injury prone. I mean, he’s missed 10 of his 50 possible games. Take that as you will. I’m not sure who comes out on top for the Eagles as the lead RB, but given it’s really between Swift and Rashaad Penny. I’d take the guy who is younger, a better pass catcher, and has played 40 games in 3 years (Swift) as opposed to the guy who is older, hasn’t topped 10 receptions in a single season, and hasn’t played more than 10 games in a season since 2018 (Penny).
Tier 9: Committee Backs/Handcuffs
30. James Cook – Buffalo Bills
31. AJ Dillon – Green Bay Packers
32. Samaje Perine – Denver Broncos
33. Jeff Wilson Jr. – Miami Dolphins
34. Damien Harris – Buffalo Bills
35. Zach Charbonnet – Seattle Seahawks
36. Brian Robinson – Washington Commanders
37. Devin Singletary – Houston Texans
38. Rashaad Penny – Philadelphia Eagles
39. Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos
You’ll notice a theme in this tier: Players on the same team or players whose teammates were named in a previous tier recently. These RBs will find the most value if an RB teammate of theirs, unfortunately, goes down with an injury. Otherwise, try to only have to start these guys in a pinch during bye weeks.
Tier 10: Names to keep an eye out for
- Khalil Herbert – Chicago Bears
- Kendre Miller – New Orleans Saints
- Chase Brown – Cincinnati Bengals
The Bears and Dolphins’ backfields are 3 headed monsters. I have my flag planted on Khalil Herbert leading the Bears and Jeff Wilson leading the Dolphins in fantasy points at RB. However, there is value to be made if you think someone else could emerge from the depth chart such as D’Onta Foreman or rookie Roschon Johnson for the Bears. Raheem Mostert or rookie Devon Achane for the Dolphins are also interesting.
Again, if you enjoyed what you read or have questions, you can find me on Twitter
@_ColtWilliams[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
