2023 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
2023 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tiers
On any given play, there could be up to 5 wide receivers on the field at the same time. Some WR2s on a team are better than another team’s WR1, which matters. When investigating what is most important for accumulating fantasy points for wide receivers, this is what I found:
Yardage (We want players who are going to accumulate a lot of yards, specifically the threshold of 1000 receiving yards. In 2022, there were 21 WRs who hit the 1000-yard mark. All but one were top 24 WRs (Rookie WR Chris Olave came in at WR25). In 2021, 23 WRs hit the 1000-yard mark, and all but one were yet again top 24 WRs (Terry McLaurin came in at WR25).
Receptions (These are easy points to forecast for a team, especially if you have historical data on the player in the NFL).
Targets and target percentage (Pretty sticky from season to season plus an indicator of talent).
WRs on great offenses (from a scoring points perspective and overall end-of-season winning record). OR they’re the only/elite talent on the WR depth chart. In both 2021 and 2022, 10 of the top 12 WRs were on winning teams.
Air Yards (Yards the ball travels through the air toward the WR). While air yards are important, context matters based on the WR. 2021 Deebo Samuel is a great example: low aDOT (average depth of target) so a lower amount of air yards and a higher amount of receiving yards because of his YAC (yards after the catch). We wouldn’t want to write off a player just because they had low air yards.
Please note, these rankings are tiered. What are tiered rankings? Why use tiered rankings? First the tiered rankings – They are rankings that put a group of players that I believe will end up around the same fantasy stats at the end of the year.
Why use tiered rankings? It’s simple. My philosophy with the tiered rankings is that if I’m on the clock and I’m looking to draft one of these players, I’m trying to get the most bang for my buck. Drafting a player at the end of a specific tier, allows you to draft other positions at other parts of the draft. An example: Let’s say you’re on the clock now and also pick again in 4 turns. You’re interested in drafting a WR right now, but there are 5 WRs in the tier you’re interested in.
This is where tiered rankings come in clutch. You can draft another position right now and then in 4 turns, even in the unlikely situation everyone drafts WR at all 4 of those spots, you still get the last guy of the tier you would have been happy with anyways. So without further ado, here are my 2023 wide receiver rankings – with tiers!
Feel free to drop a follow on Twitter @_ColtWilliams for more of my future work!
Tier 1: Elite
- Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
- Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams
- Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins
- Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals
All of these WRs are in the argument for the 1.01 in 2023 redraft leagues. The most receiving yards in a WRs first 4 seasons are as follows: Michael Thomas (5512), Randy Moss (5396), Torry Holt (5088), Jerry Rice (4881), AJ Green (4874). Jefferson has racked up 4825 yards in 3 seasons. Combine his historic pace, getting better year after year, and his youth, I had to put Jefferson as my WR1.
Cooper Kupp was the WR24 in 2022. That may not sound impressive, but in case you forgot, he only played 8 full games. Kupp was the WR1 in PPG (points per game). He’s getting Stafford back and they added no big names to the WR depth chart. Sign me up for some Cooper Kupp.
In 2022, Tyreek changed from the best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, to the Miami Dolphins. Going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa seemed like it was destined for doom. Tons of skepticism was quickly silenced when Tyreek went out, proved everyone wrong, and put up his career-best receiving yards and receptions in a season (119 for 1710).
Ja’Marr Chase is tied to the best QB in this tier. He dealt with some injuries in 2022, but looks great going into 2023. Much like Tyreek, Chase can take it to the house from anywhere on the field and deserves to be in the conversation for the 1.01.
Tier 2: Top Dogs
5. Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills
6. A.J. Brown – Philadelphia Eagles
7. CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys
8. Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders
First and foremost, remember that I’m talking about fantasy. So just because I didn’t put Adams or Diggs or any of these players in the elite tier, doesn’t mean I don’t think they are elite on the NFL field, it’s simply just a tier name. Diggs just barely missed the elite tier. When I asked myself if I was on the clock if there was an instance in which I’d take Diggs over any of those players in the elite tier, I kept saying no. Tied to Josh Allen, Diggs should put up yet another great performance in 2023.
Brown’s first year as an Eagle was special. Much like Tyreek, A.J. Brown moved to a new team, which caused a lot of speculation. Hurts is a rushing QB, there is no way he gets as much volume as when he was on the Titans because they had nobody. Also, he’s with DeVonta Smith. Then, Brown silenced them all. He ended the season as the WR5 and had 4 monster weeks over 20 half PPR (points per reception). I like Diggs a little more for consistency, but both can put up a game-winning week anytime.
Starting Lamb last year felt kinda bad at times even though he ended as the WR6. Just 2 weeks over 20 pts and now they changed their OC from Kellen Moore to Brian Schottenheimer. While it may be less pass-heavy than it was with Kellen Moore, Schottenheimer does like to lean on the run to open up the play-action pass, which Lamb could benefit from.
Adams looked like he didn’t miss a step going from Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers to Las Vegas with Derek Carr. As Adams said, “Any time you change QBs from Hall of Famer to Hall of Famer, it’s going to be a little bit of an adjustment.”
While we scoffed and laughed, Adams continued his dominance no matter who the QB was. This makes me feel bad putting him at WR8 because is Jimmy Garoppolo that much worse than Derek Carr? He could be as high as WR5 for me, and wouldn’t fault anyone for taking him slightly earlier.
Tier 3: Rounding out the remaining WR1s
9. Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins
10. Garrett Wilson – New York Jets
11. Amon-Ra St. Brown – Detroit Lions
12. Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals
13. DK Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks
14. Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints
15. DeVonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles
This group of WRs comes with a couple of WR2s or 1Bs for their team such as Waddle, Higgins, Smith, and perhaps even Olave. (Can Michael Thomas be healthy for once?) This is the last tier I’d be happy with as my WR1 for my fantasy team. I’m loving Waddle’s value because I believe he can put up similar numbers to Tyreek on any given week, but you’re not paying that premium. The two Miami WRs complement each other so much, making it hard to double-cover both on a play. Much like Tyreek, Waddle can and will take it to the house from anywhere on the field. Waddle could walk onto half the teams in the NFL and be the WR1 for that team.
2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award winner Garrett Wilson got the QB upgrade he was complaining about in pressers. Going from a 3-headed monster (not in a good way) of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White to future hall-of-fame QB Aaron Rodgers, should be nice. Even with the carousel of backup QBs in 2022, Wilson still managed 1103 yards and 4 touchdowns. Nathaniel Hackett was horrible as a head coach, but thankfully he’s back to his OC position, reunited with Rodgers, and hoping to relive the back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021 they had together. Wilson could be a dark horse for the WR1 overall if everything clicks.
Amon-Ra makes his money on volume and consistency. With Jameson Williams suspended for the first 6 games, Hockenson is gone, and they added no one else (outside of Gibbs). I think Amon-Ra could start 2023 on fire. This is something I’m always looking for. Oftentimes, you can capitalize on this too. The Lions start off playing the Chiefs, Seahawks, Falcons, Packers, and Panthers. No extremely difficult matchups here as they are all projected to be 16th or worse defenses.
Now let’s say St. Brown goes out and by week 5 he’s the WR1-4 on the season (for context, Amon-Ra was the WR3 in PPR from weeks 1-3 last season). You can capitalize on his perceived value before Jameson comes back and perhaps trade him away for a haul. That’s personally what I like to do, but you can always ride it out and reap the benefits.
Higgins is another player who could walk on and be the WR1 for a team, but he’s paired up with Chase, so he’ll play 2nd fiddle for the time being. Higgins has capitalized on games that Chase has missed, scoring an average of 15.5 PPG and in games Chase is healthy, Higgins is still scoring a respective 12.1 PPG. The first team reps for the QB room in Seattle were getting split up with Drew Lock and Geno Smith up until a couple of weeks before the start of the season.
Nevertheless, Metcalf was still able to make do with Geno at the helm by posting 90 receptions for 1048 yards and 6 TDs season. The Seahawks made some moves in the 2023 NFL Draft when they selected 2nd round RB Zach Charbonnet, who can catch the ball well, and 1st round WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (my favorite WR coming out and the 1st WR taken in the draft). JSN can play anywhere on the field, but he is primarily projected as the Seahawks’ slot WR for 2023, so less worried for Metcalf. Though he should still soak up some of the volume.
Chris Olave ended the season with more PPG than the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson, but a worse fantasy finish because he missed 2 games. We shouldn’t weigh too much on QB upgrades unless it’s going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers, but going from Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton to Derek Carr might warrant an upgrade. That’s just what Olave got.
Coming in at 6th in air yards last season, as a rookie, is great, but yet again another statistic Olave finished higher than his rookie counterpart Garrett Wilson. The Saints seem to be limiting Michael Thomas during OTAs to mitigate wear on his body. Either way, Thomas has played in 10 games in the past 3 seasons. Olave and Thomas could make a nice 1A/1B WR group, but it’s very likely for Olave to be solid for 2023.
The Eagles brought in A.J. Brown which looked like a death sentence for Smith, but it was everything but that. In his sophomore season, Smith balled out with 95 receptions (more than A.J. Brown) for 1196 yards and 7 TDs. Smith was just behind Brown in targets (136 to 145). After looking at the stats for the Eagles, one thing stood out: When the offense is clicking, it doesn’t matter who balls out. Usually, both are balling out. In all except 2 games in 2022, when one of the two WRs scored over 15 points, the other WR also had a good week:
Week 3: Brown 17pts, Smith 26pts.
Week 6: Brown 15pts, Smith 12pts.
13: Brown 27pts, Smith 18pts.
14: Brown 15pts, Smith 14pts.
15: Brown 22pts, Smith 15.
16: Brown 13pts, Smith 27pts
17: Brown 17pts, Smith 16pts.
Don’t let A.J. Brown scare you off Smith, the two WRs work well together.
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